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Numbers (Unlike Presidents) Don’t Lie
Native Vote 2026
Exploring the landscape a week before counting day; Republicans are shooting themselves
I like to write in the morning, starting around 5. (Some days earlier, some days a bit later.) I especially am fond of being at the keyboard, looking out my large windows as the sun pops over the foothills here in Southern Idaho. This week it’s been amazing: Stormy days adding different shades and colors to the frame. This morning it’s back to crystal clear skies and an optimism for the day ahead.
To read more articles by Mark Trahant, go to: Marktrahant.substack.com
Oh, clarity you were short. The fog has rolled in …
Let’s shift and explore the political landscape, the week before Election Counting Day. The theme this week: Republicans are shooting themselves.
The Ohio governor’s race is an example. GOP nominee Vivek Ramaswamy spent $4 million on attack ad that featured the estranged mother of Democratic rival Dr. Amy Acton. This is sickening on so many levels (and terrible politics). The gist is that the uses clips from Acton’s birth mother, Donna Arthur, who suggests that Acton has mental health issues. But it’s Arthur who lost custody of her children after her husband, the children’s stepfather, was indicted for raping Acton.
Trump and Ramaswamy say the ad is fair. In a campaign stop in Ohio, Ramaswamy said Acton’s mother is calling her “a liar,” and that has nothing to do with the trauma of rape. “The irony is they’re lying about an ad that is about lying,” Ramaswamy said. “They’re changing the subject because they don’t want to answer for their own failures.”
And, Trump? Well, there’s this from NBC News:
“Speaking to reporters outside the White House, Trump was asked if he has changed his mind about defending the minutelong ad, now that he knows the backstory about Acton’s late stepfather, whom Acton has said sexually abused her as a child.
“No, it’s a mother speaking badly against Amy Acton,” Trump said. “If it were my mother speaking badly about me, you’d be making it the No. 1 story on the news.”
“Trump also criticized an NBC News reporter who pressed him further about the situation, calling her “a fresh person” and “horrible little reporter.”
“Asked by NBC News about Republicans who have denounced the ad, Trump said “They don’t know the facts.”
“A mother is saying, ‘Don’t put my daughter there, because she’s a terrible person and she’s a liar.’ Why shouldn’t somebody use that?” he added.
The president first voiced support for the ad in a post on Truth Social Thursday, suggesting that Republicans were being treated unfairly. “If my mother, the legendary Mary MacLeod Trump, said anything bad about me, the Fake News would play it up,” Trump wrote. “The Dumocrats would be totally supportive, and it would go down as the Ad of the Decade — Maybe the Century!”
There are so many immediate political implications. It only took a day for Cook Political Report to change its ratings for the Ohio governor’s race to lean Democrat (from toss up). Jessica Taylor who wrote about the shift for Cook Political Report said they haven’t talked to a GOP source who thought the ad was a good idea. “This is not the kind of TV ad you run if you’re winning — or even if you’re confident you can. Recent polls were trending in Acton’s direction even before the bombshell ad became a national news story,” she wrote.
And the politics are terrible beyond Ohio. Now every Republican candidate has to go on record: Either backing Trump, VP J.D. Vance, and Ramaswamy, or taking the side of decent people who see the ad for what it was. Disgusting.
In Alaska … 16 minus 8 equals 8
The second major misstep this week is the Justice Department’s lawsuit against Alaska.
From Alaska Public Media:
“A range of legal experts and Alaskans decried a Trump administration lawsuit filed Thursday seeking to block certification of the state’s U.S. Senate election if the president’s preferred candidate, Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, loses the race.
“The lawsuit seeks a court order preventing state election officials from declaring Sullivan’s Democratic opponent, former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, the winner of the Nov. 3 contest if a candidate who shares the incumbent’s first and last name, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan of Petersburg, wins a share of the vote. Specifically, the lawsuit seeks to block a Peltola win “pending an investigation to determine whether votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan were meant to be cast for Senator Sullivan.”
“This is a despicable political threat to overturn an election, designed by Senator Dan Sullivan’s allies to suppress the voices of Alaskans because Sullivan is terrified he’ll lose the seat,” said Harry Child, Peltola’s campaign spokesman.
“Nate Adams, a spokesperson for Sen. Sullivan’s campaign, expressed confidence in his reelection but said by text Friday “we’ll let the DOJ complaint run its course.”
“Adams said Alaska voters “are smart enough to figure out the difference” between the two Sullivans. He also said Sen. Sullivan had no prior knowledge of the lawsuit.
Before I get into the politics, I was thinking about an episode with 30 Rock where Jack Donaghy runs over his mother, Colleen. She confronts him in his office with the facts.
“John Francis Donaghy how could you? How could you, waiting 8 minutes to call 911,” she says. “Exhibit One: A call to 911 at 8:16 a.m. Exhibit B: The watch that my son gave me for Christmas (not the one I wanted by the way) … and it stopped at 8:08 Exhibit C: 16 – 8 is 8. Numbers (unlike children) don’t lie.”
Back to the Trump legal filing.
In its complaint the Justice Department lists this as a fact. “Item 31. Alaska held its primary election on August 28. Peltola received 49.5% of the vote, Senator Sullivan received 41.4% of the vote, Daniel J. Sullivan received 2.5% of the vote, and Republican Gerald Heikes received 1.1% of the vote. Those candidates will be on the ballot in the November general election.”
Numbers (unlike presidents) don’t lie. Add 41.4 percent plus 2.4 percent and the sum is 43.9 percent. Even in the pleading, incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is losing. Daniel J. Sullivan makes no difference.
And the ballot, also in the filing, makes it easy to distinguish between Daniel S. Sullivan, Registered Republican / Incumbent and Daniel J. Sullivan.
I had thought that Mary Peltola had a strong shot at hitting 50 percent on the first ballot. I think she is even stronger now. (And this malarky could help Ranked Choice Voting survive in Alaska, too.) This hit at so many sore spots: Federal intrusion, corruption, and a direct attack on voting itself. And this is while people are voting. Not smart politics.
Trump, of course, takes credit for this. He told reporters: “I’m the one that said ‘do it.”
He said: “It’s ridiculous that the Court didn’t stop this SCAM. Even 1, 2, or 3% could make the difference.”
Or not. It’s hard to argue against 50 percent, plus one.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski@lisamurkowski
Alaskans don’t need any help voting for their preferred candidates, and the State of Alaska has already handled this by clearly distinguishing the candidates on this year’s ballot. The Department of Justice should never have filed this lawsuit.
How unpopular? By the numbers
Folks here know that I am keen on watching generic ballots (Democrats versus Republicans) because that number, and the trend, gives you a sense about what’s happening beyond a single state or district.
An excellent data source is Strength in Numbers on Substack.
The headline: “Democrats lead by 10 among registered voters and 12 among likely voters, both highs for our poll, as Trump sets new lows on immigration and border security.”
Among registered voters, 52% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district and 41% for the Republican, a margin of 10.4 points using unrounded figures. That edges past our previous high of 10.1 points in February. Among likely voters, Democrats lead 54% to 42%, a 12-point margin and also a high for the series. The Republican Party’s 41% among registered voters is the lowest share it has received in our poll.
Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson has a generic ballot survey that is similar. (Silver Bulletin on Substack.)
“Democrats’ surge in the polls that started in early September leveled off for a short time, but they’re now back on the upswing. As of today, their lead on the generic congressional ballot is sitting at D +9.1. That’s right around their all-time high for the 2026 cycle of D +9.2.
“We post a different version of our generic ballot average on our midterm election forecast page. It applies a likely voter adjustment, which in this case benefits Democrats and moves their lead from D +9.1 to D +9.6. -EMD, 10/23/26”
The numbers for Trump himself (Remember: ‘Pretend I am on the ballot) are even worse.
Again from Silver Bulletin:
“This week, Donald Trump hit a new all-time net approval low of -24.3. That’s a two-point drop from last week, thanks to some truly eye watering recent polls:
- NYT/Siena: net -26
- American Research group: -38
- Verasight/Strength in Numbers: -28
- CNN/SSRS: -35
- Reuters/Ipsos: -35
According to the New York Times, Trump has the second lowest approval rating heading into the midterms since 1946, behind only Harry Truman. -EMD, 10/23/26”
Next let’s look at turnout. Early voting numbers from the University of Florida Election Lab.
Remember that in the 2024 election, nearly 60% of voters cast ballots either early or by mail. The pie: 39.6 percent voted on Election Day at the polls; 30.7 percent voted early and 29 percent voted by mail.
This year about 70 percent are expected to vote early or by mail.
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